Category Archives: Winter Forecast

The Heating Season starting dates

A significant increase in electric heater sales is the time when people start purchasing products to do early projects to get ready for winter.  The “heating season” is a 6 to 8 month time period that starts while it is still warm out and ends while it is still cold out (typically sometime in March).

It has started the following times in past years:

Early October 2016
Early August 2015
Mid
August 2014
Late August 2013
Mid September 2012
Early August 2011
Early August 2010
Late September 2009
Early September 2008
Mid August 2007
Early September 2006

The first products that start increasing in sales are roof and gutter heating cable followed by comfort heater sales and finally (December/January) Pipe Heat Trace Cable.

Early season sales has little to do with the winter forecast. They have more to do with what happened last year! Recently we have experienced many brutal winters, normal winters and one of the mildest ever, so the beginning has varied greatly.

This post was:

Heating Cable Guy Approved
Heating Cable Guy Approved

The 2013-2014 Heating Season has begun!

A significant increase in heater sales is the time when people start purchasing products to do early projects to get ready for winter.  The “heating season” is a 7 month time period that starts while it is still warm out and ends while it is still cold out (sometime in March).

It has been the following times in these years:

Late August 2013
Mid September 2012
Early August 2011
Early August 2010
Late September 2009
Early September 2008
Mid August 2007
Early September 2006

The first products that start increasing in sales are roof and gutter heating cable followed by comfort heater sales.

Due to the brutal last half of winter, with record snow cover that we just had, people have been purchasing heating cable early, in August, this year.

2012-2013 USA Winter Weather Forecast

A Greenland block is now developing which digs cold air into the eastern USA.
After the mild winter we just suffered through, when forecasters were mostly in agreement on a brutal winter 2011-2012, a warm winter was caused by the lack of a Greenland blocking high pressure, a positive arctic oscillation, an abnormally cold Stratosphere and many other exceptional issues.  
Forecasters are in discussion of a much more seasonable winter 2012-2013 with more East Coast storms than normal.

So we could see snow and cold starting in November because when Earth comes out of a La Nina it can feature a cold and/or very snowy winter the coming winter or the next.  We can only hope for that setup or worse like what happened for the winter of 1976-77 and 1903-04, two of the coldest winters ever.  A moderate El Nino pattern is developing which could cause storms to come in through California and cross the southern states on a strong subtropical jet stream which is a pattern that could bring some good winter to the whole country.  We need a negative arctic oscillation (very cold air moving south) for storms to move up the East coast with cold air injected into them for a supercharged winter with abundant cold and moisture.

Due to the warm temperatures east of the Rockies last season, we had a heating season that was in two parts.  The first part was good and the second part was very, very bad.  Everything in the heating business was fairly normal into December because people were remembering the past few bad winters.  


So far forecasts are showing cold and snow in the Midwest and Northeast:

http://www.farmersalmanac.com/forum/2012/07/23/new-official-2012-2013-united-states-winter-forecast/

http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/p/updated-2012-2013-preliminary-winter.html

New The Weather Channel 2012-2013 winter forecast also predicts a cold winter for the northeast & Great Lakes: http://www.weather.com/weather/videos/news-41/top-stories-169/seasonal-outlook-a-harsh-winter-30224
Old Farmer’s Almanac Winter Weather Forecast for 2012-2013 says much colder & above normal snow Midwest & East Coast: http://www.almanac.com/content/long-range-winter-weather-forecast-2012-2013-season

Winter 2012-2013 Forecast

After the mild winter we just suffered through, when forecasters were mostly in agreement on a brutal winter 2011-2012, a warm winter was caused by the lack of a Greenland blocking high pressure, a positive arctic oscillation, an abnormally cold Stratosphere and many other exceptional issues.  

Forecasters are in discussion of a much more brutal winter 2012-2013 with more East Coast storms than normal. A Greenland block is now developing which typically digs cold air into the eastern USA.

So we could see snow and cold starting in November because when Earth comes out of a La Nina it can feature a cold and/or very snowy winter the coming winter or the next.  We can only hope for that setup or worse like what happened for the winter of 1976-77 and 1903-04, two of the coldest winters ever.  A moderate El Nino pattern is developing which could cause storms to come in through California and cross the southern states on a strong subtropical jet stream which is a pattern that could bring some good winter to the whole country.  We need a negative arctic oscillation (very cold air moving south) for storms to move up the East coast with cold air injected into them for a supercharged winter with abundant cold and moisture.

Due to the warm temperatures east of the Rockies last season, we had a heating season that was in two parts.  The first part was good and the second part was very, very bad.  Everything in the heating business was fairly normal into December because people were remembering the past few bad winters.

So far forecasts are showing cold and snow in the Midwest and Northeast:

http://www.farmersalmanac.com/forum/2012/07/23/new-official-2012-2013-united-states-winter-forecast/

http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/2012/09/official-2012-2013-winter-forecast_8.html

Snowmaggedon possible: USA’s second-oldest almanac predicting heavy snowstorms winter 2012-2013 in mid-Atlantic region:
http://www.fredericknewspost.com/sections/news/display.htm?storyID=140288#.UEi64OVmyoY

The Weather Channel 2012-2013 winter forecast also predicts a cold winter for the northeast & Great Lakes: http://www.weather.com/weather/videos/news-41/top-stories-169/seasonal-outlook-a-harsh-winter-30224
Old Farmer’s Almanac Winter Weather Forecast for 2012-2013 says much colder & above normal snow Midwest & East Coast: http://www.almanac.com/content/long-range-winter-weather-forecast-2012-2013-season

http://snowday1.wordpress.com/2012/09/16/winter-forecast-2012-2013/

And in case you are skeptical after last winter, when all the worlds weathermen and computers failed miserably, here is a forecast from a 16 year old kid.  It’s a super cold & snowy winter for northeastern USA. Very, very similar to the 1977 winter where Carter called out the national guard and shut down most of the government for a week. You know things are getting interesting when a 16 year old weatherman drops a super cold & snowy bombshell forecast, with graphics, for the eastern USA winter 2012-2013:

NOAA 2011-2012 Winter Outlook Forecast is released: U.S. dealt another La Niña winter but ‘wild card’ could trump it

More Predictions of a Brutal 2011-2012 USA Winter: Yet Another Massive Winter Heading for the Northern Hemisphere?

Geoff Sharp correctly predicted the brutal winter the world experienced last year.  He had said it would be similar to the little ice age and it was. He is predicting more of the same for winter 2011-2012 in a new blog post:

Yet Another Massive Winter Heading for the Northern Hemisphere?

There is only one component in my mind that can stop another massive winter occurring in the Northern Hemisphere during 2011/2012. The Sun will need to come out of its slumber very quickly and start producing monthly smoothed sunspot numbers above 70. Last year I made a Northern Hemisphere prediction in July that some thought was highly unlikely ” I predict the extra boost from my predicted solar grand minimum along with the  current oceanic conditions the next northern winter (2010/2011) will experience conditions similar to the Little Ice Age (1250-1850)”

Read more:
http://www.landscheidt.info/?q=node/224

Winter 2011-2012: Brutal for the Midwest, Great Lakes

“Harsh, brutal, snowy and cold. What other adjectives can I use?” AccuWeather.com meteorologist Henry Margusity said of his company’s winter forecast for the Great Lakes region, released Wednesday

AccuWeather.com: Winter 2011-2012: Brutal for the Midwest, Great Lakes

AccuWeather.com released their winter forecast today.  The Midwest and Great Lakes is getting the worst!

Hands down, AccuWeather.com’s long-range experts agree that the Midwest and Great Lakes region will be dealt the worst of winter this year.
In terms of both snow and cold, this winter is expected to be the worst in Chicago.
AccuWeather.com Long-Range Meteorologist Josh Nagelberg even went so far as to say, “People in Chicago are going to want to move after this winter.”



http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/55832/brutal-winter-ahead-for-the-mi.asp

AccuWeather.com Winter 2011-2012 Forecast: Another Brutal One

The AccuWeather.com Long-Range Forecasting Team is predicting another brutally cold and snowy winter for a large part of the country, thanks in large part to La Niña… yet again.
La Niña, a phenomenon that occurs when sea surface temperatures across the equatorial central and eastern Pacific are below normal, is what made last year’s winter so awful for the Midwest and Northeast. Monster blizzards virtually shut down the cities of New York and Chicago. Last winter was one of New York City’s snowiest on record.

AccuWeather.com Winter 2011-2012 Forecast: Another Brutal One

2011-2012 Winter Forecast links

BREAKING: La Nina has begun.

The -0.5 threshold was reached today. Niño 3.4 Region Sea Surface Temperature Index:

La Nina forecast is now even colder than last winter: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/images3/nino34SSTMon.gif Snowmageddon here we come again! What a brutal winter coming:

Winter Forecast 2011-2012 – Every winter forecast released so far has been for a horrible winter

One after another they are beating the warning drums. Even the big guns like AccuWeather.com.

Next in line: Winter 2011-12 Secondary Forecast: NOW AVAILABLE! « Cirrus Weather

Showing this apocalyptic graphic:

and their complete forecast is stunning:

http://cirruswx.wordpress.com/seasonal-forecasts/1493-2/

At Mor Electric Heating we are no weather channel, but we know alot about winter devastation and we can help you prepare with this:

Roof and Gutter De-icing Cable (Heat Trace Wire) purchased here:
http://www.heatersplus.com/roofs.htm

Pipe Heat Trace (Freeze Protection Heating Cable) purchased here:
http://www.heatersplus.com/pipes.htm

Winter 2011-2012 Forecast – A trending search term on Google since July

The past few bad winters have got people quite upset.  Every year people have searched for the term “Winter Forecast” earlier by about 2 weeks.  This year was the earliest in the past 7 years and traffic started registering in the Google index as a trending topic since July 1st!

And the traffic locations are directly from some of the hardest hit areas that have had the record breaking cold and snow:

1. Denver, CO, USA
2. Philadelphia, PA, USA
3. St Louis, MO, USA
4. Thames Ditton, United Kingdom
5. Edinburgh, United Kingdom
6. Seattle, WA, USA
7. Brentford, United Kingdom
8. Washington, DC, USA
9. Poplar, United Kingdom
10. Toronto, Canada

Of course, like Mark Twain once said, “Everyone complains about the weather but nobody does a bloody thing to change it!” So, you see, we don’t have much of a choice in the matter, do we?

But we do have a choice to prepare for the consequences of the worst weather. In the U.K. the governments are building road salt storage facilities and doubling their stock of salt. And for the first time people are purchasing snow tires and early buy tire programs have been developed.

In the USA we need to prepare with this:

Roof and Gutter De-icing Cable (Heat Trace Wire) purchased here:
http://www.heatersplus.com/roofs.htm

Pipe Heat Trace (Freeze Protection Heating Cable) purchased here:
http://www.heatersplus.com/pipes.htm

We monitor our own “trends” here at Mor Electric Heating, and I can assure you that “heating cable” is one hot trending topic, even in July and August! We truly feel sorry for all the folks we are talking to that have been thoroughly punished by the scope and scale of the past few winters with another bad one looming.

And that is one reason we are committed to becoming (if we are not already) the biggest and best heating cable distributor in the Country!

Cold, Snowy, Massive Northern Hemisphere Winter Looms Because La Niña returns

WUWT is saying that La Nina is back already! Temperatures have dropped significantly below the -0.5 deg C threshold of a La Niña and are presently at -0.74 deg C.
Forecast charts take it much colder very soon.

La Niña returns | Watts Up With That?

Exacta Weather US Long Range Winter Weather Forecast 2011-2012

He also states that there is “a potentially record breaking US winter for 2011-2012, with extremely cold temperatures and exceptional levels of snow that will see the Pacific Northwest and Eastern US get particularly hard hit”.

http://www.exactaweather.com/USA_Long_Range_Forecast.html