Category Archives: Winter Forecast

Here comes Winter: November Arctic Cold Blast Forecast

From AccuWeather.com:

November Arctic Cold Blast Forecast

Signs continue to point toward an Arctic cold outbreak beginning the third week of November in the Northwest, expanding to much of the eastern half of the U.S. before Thanksgiving.

http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/41299/november-arctic-cold-blast-for.asp

A very volatile winter is looming due to La Nina conditions and also cold water in the rest of the Pacific Ocean

If you are considering a purchase of some kind of electric heater because you are concerned about the coming winter, you are not alone.  At Mor Electric Heating we continue to experience sustained record high sales and we are expecting the 2010-2011 winter to be very unusual, rough and also very cold due to many factors, including La Nina conditions.  We have increased our inventory levels by 30-40% to meet the demand and are ready to quickly ship (typically the same day) a variety of heaters to you.

The world “volatility” and “variance” describes the coming winter.  It is going to be a wild ride for everybody for sure.  Unlike last year, in Michigan we expect more really cold days (lows below +10) and more mild days (+40), a January thaw, a pretty significant late fall snowstorm (lake-effect), a snowstorm in March, more wind than last year, a heavy La Nina (see general pattern of what a La Nina does) a couple of good cold shots (inc. Florida) and it’ll be colder than last winter in Alaska and most of Canada. The Northern half of the USA will experience a rough winter.
The combination of La Nina and the cold Pacific Decadal Oscillation should keep the Pacific Northwest cool, with above average snowfall in the mountains.  The storm track will often be up into the Great Lakes this winter… with lots of change on a day-to-day basis, a lot of synoptic snowstorm (including possible heavy ones) creating an above average amount of snow. 
Many factors are in play this year, which should lead to a 4th in a row bad winter, including cold.  A ‘dramatic turn toward a colder climate’ is warned from many, many prominent climatologists with some using terms such as “mini ice age”.  Solar Cycle 24 continues to match Dalton Sunspots Minimum and Solar flux remains at an unprecedented low which forces extreme Global Cooling lasting decades.

NOAA: Another Winter of Extremes in Store for U.S. as La Niña Strengthens

The Pacific Northwest should brace for a colder and wetter than average winter, while most of the South and Southeast will be warmer and drier than average through February 2011, according to the annual Winter Outlook released today by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. A moderate to strong La Niña will be the dominant climate factor influencing weather across most of the U.S. this winter.

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2010/20101021_winteroutlook.html

IT’S HERE AccuWeather.com Winter Forecast for 2010-2011 “A winter of extremes across the U.S.”

This year across the United States, AccuWeather.com Chief Long-Range Forecaster Joe Bastardi is predicting harsh cold and snow from the Northwest to the Great Lakes and New England, an early winter for the Northeast, a wintry mess for the mid-Atlantic and Midwest and abnormally warm, dry conditions from Southern California to the Carolinas.

Bastardi is pointing to areas from northern New England to the Great Lakes, northern Plains and interior Northwest for the worst of this winter’s snow and cold.  While temperatures may average out close to normal in eastern parts of this zone, including Chicago, Detroit and Buffalo, N.Y., these areas will have to endure several outstanding cold shots with larger-than-normal temperature swings.
Bastardi says that January through March will be especially “wicked” for people across the northern Rockies and northern Plains.

With this brutal forecast, it is now time to buy Roof and Gutter Heating Cable and Pipe Heating Cable

http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/40340/accuweathercom-winter-forecast-1.asp

WINTER FORECAST! Joe Bastardi’s official winter forecast will arrive on Thursday

AccuWeather.com’s preeminent meteorologist is poised to hammer us again this year with a brutal forecast.  He was exactly correct last year, as the south and east USA suffered under a brutal winter.  This year he is targeting the northwest with cold and snow (buy Roof and Gutter Heating Cable) and the midwest and east with a horrible mixed bag (buy Pipe Heating Cable) of bad cold, warm, freezing rain, snow, wind, etc..

Sneak Preview: http://www.accuweather.com/video/64448107001/sneak-peek-of-the-upcoming-win.asp (video)

If Sunspots Disappear, A Little Ice Age Could Be Coming

As many are concerned with global warming/climate change, new solar research suggests that sunspots could disappear by 2015 and possibly plunge the world into a freezing trend that could stretch decades. The last time this happened, in the mid-1600s and early 1800’s (the Dalton Minimum which started in 1798), the earth entered what became known as the Little Ice Age. During that period, the Rhine River froze for five weeks, snowfields lasted year round at lower elevations, and there was widespread starvation in Europe.
The research by two scientists at the National Solar Observatory has been widely accepted by their colleagues and is unequivocal: The solar magnetism that causes sunspots is at a hundred-year low and is continuing to slide independent of the normal sunspot cycle.

Thames River, 1677

“Sunspot magnetic fields are dropping by about 50 gauss per year,” says Matt Penn, who with Bill Livingston analyzed solar magnetism by studying the infrared spectral lines of iron. “If we extrapolate this trend into the future, sunspots could completely vanish around the year 2015.”

NASA sunspot expert David Hathaway told Astrobiology magazine, “This work has caused a sensation in the field of solar physics. It’s controversial stuff.”

Low sunspot activity has been linked to colder European winters — a study published in Environmental Research Letters earlier this year studied 350 years of weather and sunspot data and connected the two.

Sunspots wax and wane in 11-year cycles. They are caused by magnetic fields beneath the surface of the sun; the fields twist from solar rotation and become rope-like and where these ropes reach the surface, sunspots are formed. The key isn’t the sunspots so much as the strength of the underlying magnetism. Penn and Livingston measured solar magnetism at 3,000 gauss in 1990 and have plotted it steadily downward to around 2,100 in 2009. At its current slide, it will reach 1,500, the point at which sunspots disappear, by 2015.

The controversy isn’t over the data, but projections of it. “It is important to note that it is always risky to extrapolate linear trends,” Penn and Livingston write, “but the importance of the implications from making such an assumption justify its mention.”

There are lots of “ifs” and “coulds” and “possiblies” here, but the implications are huge.  Penn and Livingston suggest the picture will be clearer within the next year.
If levels continue to drop, buy electric heaters.
Archibald, Hathaway and other scientists are also making Solar Cycle 24 Predictions. Archibald says 18 more bad winters then the little ice age transition.  Just like 210 years ago. http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/10/06/archibald-on-dr-hathaway%E2%80%99s-most-recent-solar-cycle-24-prediction/

Archibald says that with global cooling underway, his own research interest has moved on to understanding the transition to cooling.

We are now headed into the third cold northern winter in a row, so perhaps there may be only 18 more winters before the climate is set up for a rapid regime shift. There is apparantly a 210 year cycle and we have reached 210 years.

Hathaway reduced his prediction for a sunspot max of 64. Archibald is at 48 the same as Dalton!  Flux is still dead at 75 – 85 and the Sun is blank again at times recently!  Some scientists have moved on from “Are we in a climate altering minimum” to “How cold will it get?” 

At what point does the local weatherman start warning the public about cold, snowy winters coming and tell them to prepare and even buy generators, heaters and a warm coat?

Winter Heating Costs Forecast: Electric Heating cost expected to decrease 2%, Heating oil up 12%

Excerpt from http://www.upi.com/Business_News/2010/10/13/Winter-heating-bills-expected-to-rise/UPI-43321287006096/

The U.S. Energy Information Administration said heating bills for homes that use primarily natural gas for heat — about 52 percent of the nation’s homes — could see energy prices over the course of the winter rise $27 or 4 percent. Homes relying on electric heat could cost $18 or 2 percent less to heat this winter. Those relying on heating oil — 12 percent of the nation’s homes — would have a far higher sticker shock to confront. Heating oil prices over the course of winter were expected to rise about $220 this winter, an increase of 12 percent.

The coming winter and what to expect.

Our climate & temperatures are based on fluctuations in the output of the Sun. We are entering decades of Global Cooling. Buy heaters nowOur climate & the temperatures on Earth are based entirely on the fluctuations in the output of the Sun (Solar wind, sunspots, etc.). We are entering decades of Global Cooling due to the Solar Minimum going on right now. The gulf current has slowed as it did during the last little ice age (late 1700’s and early 1800’s) when Sunspots were gone.  This was a further reinforcing of the cooling. And now again sunspots will be gone by 2014. Other changes due to the solar minimum are: arctic ice is recovering very fast, pdo is negative, amo is next, cloud cover increasing, upper atmosphere changes, etc.  So, yes, Russia will have a cold winter, but so will everyone else!
Buy heaters now to keep your house warm and heating cable before your pipes freeze and your roof leaks due to the snow!

Russian Government prepares for possible coldest winter in 1,000 years and future little ice age

The gulf stream has slowed to half speed, Sunspots will be gone by 2014, arctic ice is recovering very fast, pdo is negative, amo is next.  Global cooling concerns are reaching all levels of governments. Russia enters emergency mode:  http://rt.com/prime-time/2010-10-04/coldest-winter-emergency-measures.html

How bad will 2010/2011 winter be? We know that winter is coming very soon, Temperatures are rapidly falling in the north

Winter could start early, like late October or early November this year. There are very cold temperatures right now in Alaska (with records), the Arctic and Canada. Temperature map: http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/extreme/gfs/current/nh_raw_temp_000.png

It looks like all of Alaska and Northern Canada were below 8F last night and some areas were -12F! 
There are Arctic temperatures that are at least -24F!  Ice is rapidly building: http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/seaice/extent/AMSRE_Sea_Ice_Extent_L.png

Buy heaters now before the chaos begins!

Bill Steffen’s latest thoughts on the upcoming winter – Scary stuff? Winter – Summer – Winter

Winter – Summer – Winter

The heating season has begun!

The ramp up in heater sales (especially roof & gutter heating cable) marks the “beginning” of the heating season.  It has been the following times these years:

Early August 2010
Late September 2009
Early September 2008
Mid August 2007

Early September 2006


So this is the earliest start in five years.  
Apparently nobody is forgetting what happened last year.

A very cold winter coming? (2010-2011).

El Niño has finally faded away and it’s possible there a La Niña on the way.  Eastern pacific ocean temperatures are going to below normal (PDO).  Most of the models are predicting at least below normal temperatures in those regions through the end of the year. We still have a very cold sun (still without sunspots,) the entire ocean seems to be cooling (ocean currents are going back to colder patterns), arctic ice is back to normal, volcano activity is high, October Through March Was the Snowiest On Record In The Northern Hemisphere. Global cooling is becoming the more likely scenario now and for many years to come in the USA. Most of the USA just had a very cold winter during the El Niño, so a cold La Niña winter might be worse. Buy electric heaters from www.MorElectricHeating.com before it is too late and the snow and cold hits.